Nuclear accident: Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety

Nuclear weapons are immensely powerful, with the potential damage from an explosion being of much higher levels than all previous such weapons. The explosions of a nuclear weapon at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan that caused the end of the second world war showed the immense power of nuclear weapons, and those were on the smaller scale. Modern nuclear weapons, especially the hydrogen bombs, are of a scale that is much more powerful than the ones that were used in Japan. And the number of these weapons (stored in missile systems) are in the thousands, spread all over the country. Most people staying near to these missile silos are totally unaware of how close they live to such destructive power; although these warheads are supposed to be designed that they will not explode unless a specific series of processes are carried out, and hence the risk of detonating accidentally is ruled out.
This book showcases that while even a powerful explosion next to the warhead did not explode it, there is always some amount of uncertainty when dealing with such a weapon. Even the fact that the missile has a large amount of very dangerous fuel adds to the complication in dealing with such matters.




The Titan missiles were a significant part of the US strategic missile fleet and were mated to a 9 megaton warhead, the most powerful warhead in the US stockpile of nuclear weapons. These were sited in silos across many parts of the country and were loaded with a fuel that was more stable than previous (although stability is always a relative measure - these propellants were far more dangerous and unstable than the petrol or gasoline we use in our normal vehicles). One of these silos was near Damascus in rural Arkansas, close to Little Rock. A missile is essentially a metal pipe that contains a lot of high explosive power propellant with a much more explosive warhead on top.
Imagine a regular maintenance of the missile, and a socket drops from the personnel who are doing the maintenance. They watch in horror while the socket plummets down into the silo, finally hitting the body of the missile and cause the fuel to start gushing out from the hole. From then on, it becomes like a real life high speed film, with disaster starting everyone in the area, conflicting scenes of responsibility, local authorities knowing that some disaster is unfolding but not having control of the area (that control was with the military), and finally sending in volunteers to control the situation, followed immediately by such a huge explosion that the warhead was thrown some distance away (and recovered).
The incident has been covered in books and in documentaries, and when you see the documentary, the theory that a warhead is totally safer even under these circumstances seems like theory, not something that you really want to see being under test.

Israel and the Bomb - By Avner Cohen (1999) - The fascinating story about the Israeli bomb

Israel is a very small country in the Middle East, a country that was formed soon after the Holocaust saw millions of Jews in Europe to be murdered in hideous ways, using the official state machinery of Nazi Germany. It caused a huge upheaval in the politics of the Middle East, with large migrations of Jews from all over Europe to the Middle East with a demand for a country of their own, where they would not be subjected to extermination. However, safety of the new nation was not easy, with it being invaded by its neighbors as soon as it was formed, and struggled to defeat them. There was nothing easier for a neighboring dictator (or democratically elected leader) to become popular than to promise the defeat of Israel and force the population to the ocean (and with the size of Israel and its width), this was no empty threat. 

As a result, the safety for the Israeli nation was in having a military that was far superior to the combined might of its neighbors (or in terms of tactics, such as destroying the standing Egyptian Air Force in a quick attack in a war); and a weapon that promised a much superior capability was the atomic weapon (and Israel has not flinched from attacking those who also sought to develop nuclear weapons, such as its attacks on nuclear reactors in Syria and earlier, in Iraq). However, for developing a nuclear weapon, you need a strategy, you need technology and you need nuclear material. This book seeks to explain all of those, including the development of the Israeli nuclear effort and its attempts to hoodwink the French and US Governments over a period of time. 

For Israel, the nuclear weapon remains an enigma; the Government has never admitted having one; anybody in Israel who seeks to expose any details finds the full might of the Israeli state descending on him; and because of its internal politics, the US Government and political class have not had any discussion on this topic for decades now. Neighboring countries also do not try to talk about it, since that would admit to their people that they cannot seek to defeat the Israelis and that their own leaders are impotent in developing a counter nuclear weapon. However, the Israeli nuclear weapon has come close to being used twice, in the 1967 and the 1973 (the position in the 1973 war more dire, and Golda Meir, the Israeli PM, had apparently felt that the war position was very adverse and had considered the option of using 13 nuclear weapons unless Israel became safe again).

The book provides a history of the 2 decades that led to the development of nuclear weapons in Israel, the period of the 1950's and 60's. It was David Ben-Gurion, the warrior leader of Israel, who authorized and started the process of this development; collaborating with France and the United States for getting the technology and the material, but without them really believing that Israel was upto this (or in the case of the US, by the end, tacitly admitting the program - to the extent that it was supposed to be stolen material from a US nuclear reactor that was used for many of the weapons developed by Israel). 

Some of this was at a time when the US administration (especially under President Kennedy) was against nuclear proliferation besides those who had already had the weapons and hence was trying to figure out what Israel was doing. But other administrations in the United States struggled with how hard to push, till the Nixon administration finally gave it up, with the understanding that Israel would not test the bomb, and the US would not ask about the bomb.

The book is worthy reading, and is not a boring thesis, but more like a novel, making for interesting reading for a wider audience.

The Sum of all Fears (published in 1991) - Thermo-nuclear blast, authored by Tom Clancy

Tom Clancy was a bestseller author, who wrote with great authority on the military and on intelligence matters. However, even though he wrote expertly and with great detail on the matters that he wrote about, his books were not boring. Imagine a detailed description of how a hydrogen (thermonuclear) bomb works, imagine it written out in a novel, and imagine how scared you can be of the prospect that a physicist, with access to a core of plutonium, and without the support of a nation state, can construct a huge weapon that has the potential to destroy a city and also bring the major powers to war with each other. The detailed description of how a hydrogen bomb, with its fission and fusion steps, almost seems out of a physics book without the technical jargon that would be there in a textbook.
The book is the 5th in the series of books that had Jack Ryan as the character, and here he is in a senior position in the CIA, but unfortunately not on good terms with the National Security Advisor (Liz Elliott) because of some ego issues. Unfortunately for Ryan, this carries a lot of weight, because normally the NSA carries a lot of weight, but in this case, since the NSA is also having an affair with the President, it carries even more importance. By this time, Ryan is also well know within Congress since he was intimately involved with the going-ons in the previous book, Clear and Present Danger, which forced the moving aside of the then President and the coming into the Presidency of the current president, Robert Fowler.
The book starts with a new twist to the Israeli-Palestinian twist, whereby everybody normally knows of the public cycle of rock-throwing and retaliation, which can result in deaths, but don't cause any moral issues on a wide scale. However, the book takes a new tactic by the Palestinians, where they oppose the Israeli army through non-violent means, and are viciously attacked by a slightly deranged Israeli army commander. This sight, on view on TV screens, forces a changeover in the morality, since nobody can defend this action of killing peaceful protesters who were not attacking them. Israel stands on the verge of being isolated, and although this isolation has happened, a change in attitude in the US could be very significant.

A quick plan, started by Jack Ryan, goes through the various stakeholders including the Vatican, the Saudis, the Russians, and a potential peace is declared in the troubled areas of the Middle East, where a troika of different religious leaders administer the region. This causes havoc in the minds of terrorists, since the confrontation is their life blood, and they join forces with a German terrorist who was also finding safe sanctuary missing with the meltdown of the communist worlds of eastern Europe. This would not mean anything, but they have found a lost Israeli bomb in the Golan Heights, and that is seen as the basis for building a powerful bomb, that combined with other actions, will make it seem that this was done by the Russians and provoke a massive confrontation.
With the bomb having been made, it is sought to be exploded in Denver when the Super Bowl is happening, which would devastate the city and also take out senior administration officials who were there to take part in the game. Combine this with an attack supposedly by the Russians in Berlin on American forces, and a weakened and traumatized President, not getting good counsel, and the situation rapidly escalates. The Russians are blamed, and they are shocked to find that they are being blamed, with a battle happening in Berlin and some of their aircraft getting downed without warning near Libya. But if threatened, they have the potential to kill back in equal number. Ryan is getting some good intelligence, but will the President listen in time ? A gripping, although seemingly unrealistic novel.