Israel and the Bomb - By Avner Cohen (1999) - The fascinating story about the Israeli bomb

Israel is a very small country in the Middle East, a country that was formed soon after the Holocaust saw millions of Jews in Europe to be murdered in hideous ways, using the official state machinery of Nazi Germany. It caused a huge upheaval in the politics of the Middle East, with large migrations of Jews from all over Europe to the Middle East with a demand for a country of their own, where they would not be subjected to extermination. However, safety of the new nation was not easy, with it being invaded by its neighbors as soon as it was formed, and struggled to defeat them. There was nothing easier for a neighboring dictator (or democratically elected leader) to become popular than to promise the defeat of Israel and force the population to the ocean (and with the size of Israel and its width), this was no empty threat. 

As a result, the safety for the Israeli nation was in having a military that was far superior to the combined might of its neighbors (or in terms of tactics, such as destroying the standing Egyptian Air Force in a quick attack in a war); and a weapon that promised a much superior capability was the atomic weapon (and Israel has not flinched from attacking those who also sought to develop nuclear weapons, such as its attacks on nuclear reactors in Syria and earlier, in Iraq). However, for developing a nuclear weapon, you need a strategy, you need technology and you need nuclear material. This book seeks to explain all of those, including the development of the Israeli nuclear effort and its attempts to hoodwink the French and US Governments over a period of time. 

For Israel, the nuclear weapon remains an enigma; the Government has never admitted having one; anybody in Israel who seeks to expose any details finds the full might of the Israeli state descending on him; and because of its internal politics, the US Government and political class have not had any discussion on this topic for decades now. Neighboring countries also do not try to talk about it, since that would admit to their people that they cannot seek to defeat the Israelis and that their own leaders are impotent in developing a counter nuclear weapon. However, the Israeli nuclear weapon has come close to being used twice, in the 1967 and the 1973 (the position in the 1973 war more dire, and Golda Meir, the Israeli PM, had apparently felt that the war position was very adverse and had considered the option of using 13 nuclear weapons unless Israel became safe again).

The book provides a history of the 2 decades that led to the development of nuclear weapons in Israel, the period of the 1950's and 60's. It was David Ben-Gurion, the warrior leader of Israel, who authorized and started the process of this development; collaborating with France and the United States for getting the technology and the material, but without them really believing that Israel was upto this (or in the case of the US, by the end, tacitly admitting the program - to the extent that it was supposed to be stolen material from a US nuclear reactor that was used for many of the weapons developed by Israel). 

Some of this was at a time when the US administration (especially under President Kennedy) was against nuclear proliferation besides those who had already had the weapons and hence was trying to figure out what Israel was doing. But other administrations in the United States struggled with how hard to push, till the Nixon administration finally gave it up, with the understanding that Israel would not test the bomb, and the US would not ask about the bomb.

The book is worthy reading, and is not a boring thesis, but more like a novel, making for interesting reading for a wider audience.

Into the Storm (Command Series) (Published in 1997) - Authored by Tom Clancy - The rise of the US army

Tom (who died in 2013) was a first rate author. He is famous for his series of fiction books centered around the world of his main character Jack Ryan, with a combination of intelligence agency (CIA) and military. His books starting with "The Hunt for Red October" were surprising because of the level of detail and military accuracy. This first book got a huge boost with the then President Ronald Reagan mentioning it as a book that he liked, and from that point on, there was no looking back. He wrote a series of books (many of them were quite lengthy), but for his fans, these were books that they loved and his books continued to be on the bestseller list, with many of them being converted into movies as well. Unlike many others, Tom Clancy did not portray the CIA or the military as big bad monsters, and with his main hero finally finding a place in the CIA, the CIA was essentially described as patriots, out to ensure that the United States defeats its enemies.
Some of his other famous books were such as Clear and Present Danger, Sum of all Fears, Debt of Honor, Executive Orders, etc. Some of these books could be seen as forecasting events which happened later, such as the plane crash by a disgruntled Japanese pilot in Debt of Honor was an eerie premonition of the plane crashes of September 11, 2001; and the Ebola crisis depicted in Executive Orders was probably the first time that a major author had shown the sheer horror of Ebola, and the current ongoing crisis in West Africa re: Ebola is similar (the social situation, infrastructure and countries are different, but the danger of such a virus comes real in the reading of this book).




Tom Clancy had also written some non-fiction books, which are much less famous, and since they are not fiction, they do not have the fast pace of the fiction books, but they are based on reality and are worth reading for the way that the books describes the setting. Into the Storm (which depicts the commander of VII corps during the Gulf War - General Frederick M Franks Jr) whose command played a pivotal role in destroying the effective military opposition of Saddam Hussein's Iraqi forces.
For those looking at a campaign from a distance, it seems about advancing into the battle and defeating the enemy, but if you want to take a closer look at the incredible amount of planning and intricacies involved in the effort, this book is a winner. From battlefield planning to logistics (and to give an idea of the sheer number of forces involved), you get details of everything in this book; it may seem too detailed, but there is a of great information available in this book - and it is hard to find this in other books.
The book also looks at the transformation of the US army. The Vietnam War was a defining moment for this institution; it was a draft based army, with discipline and training problems, and the defeat of the US in Vietnam was a huge blow to the morale of the army. From such a low, developing a professional and highly trained army that uses all the technology at its disposal effectively to be able to defeat its opponents in direct combat is a study that is brought out in this book.

Red Storm Rising (published in 1986) - Authored by Tom Clancy, a conflict between NATO and Warsaw

Tom Clancy (1947 - 2013) was an author who wrote a number of gripping novels taking the intelligence agencies and military and wrote novels around these, involving a number of different countries. In some cases, the level of details was such that it surprised even experts. For example, when his first novel, 'The Hunt for Red October' came out in 1984, it was a big hit and the details of nuclear submarines was a surprise to everyone (with one person even wondering how the Government allowed a novel with such details to be published). Over a period of time, his novels, which initially focused on confrontation with the Soviets at an intelligence and military level, moved to new challenges, including reconciliation and support with the Russians and conflict with the Chinese (somewhat warped, and maybe even racist to some level - The Bear and the Dragon), and with more and more focus to conflict with Islamic terrorism (and the haunting depiction of the crashing of a full size commercial jet into the US Congress in the year 1994 - many years before the terrorist strike of 2001). For his fans, his novels were well researched novels, with a lot of details about how the intelligence agencies of the US Government worked, particularly through one of his chief characters - the honest and moral, and conservative Jack Ryan. For the generation who have been born after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a novel about a clash between the huge Warsaw Pact and NATO forces in Europe would seem so old word, but this novel is a fascinating reading about how the policy making works in a restricted government - where the leaders think that whatever they say will happen. And the details of the military action are also great. Of course, most of Clancy's novels are gripping, but they are thick and take their own time to read (and read with great care).



Red Storm Rising does not have any association with Jack Ryan, one of the few of Clancy's novels that do not have any association with his chief character. It starts out with a terrorist strike by independence seekers from Azerbaijan who destroy a huge oil production facility, with this single striking causing a massive blow to the ability of the Soviet Union to generate oil - and this affects their production facilities, their farm production and their military. One option is to get cooperation from the West and seek their help - but internal politics plays a key role in moving the politburo away from this option and instead launching an all out attack on the NATO forces across Europe so as to prevent them from mobilizing in support of a Soviet drive to attack across Iran and seize the Persian oil field. The concept being to somehow show that there was an attack on the Warsaw Pact and this would force the Soviet Union to retaliate and hold NATO in Europe and keep them busy. And why would this work ? The Warsaw Pact had a much larger number of tanks and military equipment than NATO, but the quality of forces is a different matter.
However, NATO learns of these plans and on the first day of the offensive, manage to get their superior aircraft to slow down the Russian advance by destroying enemy aircraft and key infrastructure such as bridges. Soviet planners expected a slow advance through Germany and were willing to take losses, but were also able to surprise their NATO opposites through seizing Iceland, and also using some tactical efforts to attack some NATO naval vessels.
However, things start to reverse with the grounding of the force based at Iceland and re-taking of Iceland by the US Marines. And then a quick attack places NATO forces behind the front of the Soviet army and then the forces also learn knowledge about the dire fuel status of the Soviet armies and they destroy some of their fuel supplies, in a prelude to the general attack against the Soviet army forces. But such an offensive might force the Russians to go nuclear. What happens next ?

Lord Edgware Dies (1933) - A work starring the detective Hercule Poirot, and written by Agatha Christie

By the time that Agatha Christie wrote this book, Hercule Poirot was a character who had made his mark in many of her previous books and had a huge set of fans. This book also had an alternate name, 'Thirteen at Dinner', based on the belief that if there are thirteen guests at the table, bad luck would follow the first guest who arises from the table (and there is a scene in the book where there is a dinner with 13 guests). The book's central theme is of the confusion where the accused has a solid alibi for the time of the murder, and how can a person be in 2 places at the same time, something for Poirot to solve and resolve. The book also features the other 2 companions, Hastings and Chief Inspector Japp.
Like many of her other books, the dedication of Christie's books reveals something about her personal life. The book was dedicated to Dr. and Mrs. Campbell Thompson, with Dr. Reginald Campbell Thompson being the archaeologist who was employing her husband, Max Mallowan, to work at the digs in Ur, and let Christie also accompany Max (where she could continue working on her book).



Poirot gets a letter from a lady who wants him to convince her husband to agree to a divorce. This kind of work is not something that Poirot enjoys doing, but he does, but to his surprise, the husband says that he has already agreed to the divorce and sent her the letter, which she claims not to have received. This lady is Jane Wilkinson (an actress) who is married to the peer, the fourth Baron Edgware. And then the Baron is found dead, and she is accused of murdering the Baron so that she can get married to her lover, Duke of Merton. She had arrived at the house, the butler had let her in, and the next morning, the Baron was found dead. But there is a problem, since she was also seen in a dinner party on the previous night (the night of the murder), and how can a person be at 2 different places at the same time.
Then Poirot gets to know of the death of an actress called Carlotta Adams is found dead, dead due to an overdose of Veronal, which she had apparently been using for some time (since there was a small box of it with her). Then an actor called Donald Ross is stabbed just when was going to tell Poirot about something interesting he witnessed at a dinner party. It is now upto Poirot to figure out what is happening, and whether Jane is really the murderer.

Airframe by Michael Crichton

Airframe is an interesting novel by Michael Crichton. It starts out with a normal flight returning back to Denver from Hong Kong when suddenly the whole plane starts to go haywire. The plane starts rapidly going out of control, and everything inside moves very rapidly, with passengers getting bounced around. And the plane declares a emergency off the California coast, and makes a rapid landing. A pretty horrific event. This starts the whole novel.
A typical event like this, which results in injuries and deaths to passengers will get investigated to the last bit of detail; after all, if there is a problem inside the type of plane, it needs to be found out so that the same thing can be avoided on other planes with other airlines. Part of the people who get affected by such an accident are the plane manufacturers, Norton Aircraft. They have to quickly figure out what went wrong, both to avoid scaring other airlines and to satisfy other stakeholders such as the media, shareholders, etc.



The person central to this novel is Casey Singleton, a divorced single mother who is currently the Quality Assurance Representative on the Incident Review team (the team who actually does these sort of investigations) at Norton Aircraft. She will also be the press spokesperson, a high pressure job. Unfortunately, for the investigating team, there are some constraints;
- The flight crew has already left the country
- There is a probable deal with the Chinese airlines for 50 aircraft, so this incident needs to be investigated accurately within a very short time
- The union has heard rumours about a vital transfer of technology to China, and is beginning to get hostile
AS the investigations start, Casey soon discovers that not everything is as it seems to be, and she could very well be the scapegoat. She also has to balance being a single mother on top of everything else. She is also getting attacked by a mediaperson out to get some sensational stuff. DOes she manage to do a good job and uncover the truth ?

The Devil's Alternative - Frederick Forsyth

In this time and age, the events described in this thriller by Frederick Forsyth seem as from another age. And in fact, that was another age. In 1979, when this novel was published, the Soviet Union was the worldwide great power representing communism, with the Eastern half of Europe in its clutches. In addition to the client states such as East Germany, Romania, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, etc that were also communists, and some of whom had seen the might of the Soviet army when they had tried to move towards democracy, there were the states that were part of the Soviet Union besides Russia. In all, there were 15 former states that made up the Soviet Union, and it would only have been a visionary / fool who would have dared to claim that these countries will be separate countries within 12 years.
And this is one of the main stories of this thriller. The second largest constituent state of the Soviet Union was the Ukraine, and since it was the second largest, and had known independence before, it was ruthlessly sought to be made like Russia, and any elements of Ukrainian culture stubbed out; after all, if the people are as Russian as the Russians, then where will there be a need to start a separatist front. The Russians (the largest majority of the Soviet Union) used a combination of the Red Army and the feared KGB (formerly the NKVD) to sniff out and break any level of Ukrainian separatism, such that it never reached any dangerous point.


Frederich Forsyth also takes the opportunity to explain several aspects that form the basis of the thriller, namely:
1. The workings of the Soviet Politburo and the politics between the different members, especially about how the various members come to reach the peak of political life in the Soviet Union (politburo)
2. Some details about the concept of a super-tanker and the colossal damage that a super-tanker can do
3. The use of spies and their information in deciding what Governments that are in conflict with each other do, and how policies are made based on this information
4. And a very advanced topic for that age, involving the use of spy satellites to gather information about what is happening in the territory of another country
5. A lot of details about the spy-craft, about how to spy and control agents in hostile territory
6. And for me, something that was very interesting for me, namely details about what the SR-71 (the Blackbird) can do

The novel starts with the escape of a Ukrainian separatist (under attack from the KGB) from the Soviet Union. He meets a Ukrainian sympathizer who is fanatically in favor of Ukrainian independence and against the Soviet Union and the KGB. He takes this opportunity to go to the Soviet Union.
At the same time, the US and British discover that vast tracts of the Russian grain harvest is spoiled, and then you go to the Russian side and discover that a series of freak incidents cause the spoilage of vast chunks of the Soviet wheat harvest, causing a famine of immense proportions. And once the Americans and Western powers get to know about this, they would demand concessions on a large scale before providing the grain. The Soviet Union cannot afford to undergo a famine of this level since that may cause the one thing that any Soviet politburo dreads, the rise of the long suffering population at a level that the use of force cannot control. One option is to use the vast Red Army to attack Western Europe to get over this scarcity, and this becomes a issue about control of the Politburo.
At such a time, the new British SIS (MI6) head in Moscow meets and old flame; she is also in a position to be able to supply information about the workings of the Politburo, something that the Americans and British find very valuable. As things escalate, this information is of vital information in helping fine-tune the policies of the West.
As things move ahead, things threaten to spiral out of control. If the politburo source is used too much, she could get exposed; if it gets out that Ukrainian separatists have assassinated the head of the KGB, things could spiral out of control and risk giving the faction in the politburo the majority to go to war; and if the Ukrainian separatists use the vast super-tanker Freya that they now control and let the oil go into the ocean, it would be an environmental tragedy of the highest order.
At such times, what can happen. And this is the Devil's alternative, anything you do has a consequence, and will lead to a loss of life. And for politicians and leaders, taking the easiest path is the way to go. Coldness is an essential attribute of state-craft.
The concluding lines of the book are what would shake you when you read them - 'Ukraine will be free again'; and this is precisely what happened in 1991 when Boris Yeltsin took Russia away from the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union vanished into history.

The Search: An insight into the development of Google and search

This book "The Search: An insight into the development of Google and search" is probably one of the most important books highlighting the development of search as a business, focusing on the evolution of the idea and growth. You will get an inside view of how a company named Google became an icon, the undisputed market leader of search and the company feared by many others. You also get an idea of the future potential of the search market, and some trends of how the future of search could develop into.
Google is the main star of this book, and this focus on Google seems quite natural. There have been many search engines before Google such as Altavista that were popular, but the sheer simplicity and power of Google blew away all contenders, and it would be hard to talk about why search is such an interesting topic unless you focus on a company that made search so popular.


The author of the book, John Battelle, is well suited to write a book such as this. After all, when you get a person who has been intimately connected with some of the pioneering influential sites on the Internet arena such as 'Wired' magazine, 'The Industry Standard' magazine and is able to touch base with the heads of some of the leading people in this area - such as the founders of Google, founders of Yahoo, the chief brain behind the Altavista search, and the venture capitalists (who are as connected and important for technological developments as the entrepreneurs themselves). As a result, the book presents a great detail of the inside view on how search as a technology and business developed, how early pioneers such as Altavista and Goto.com pioneered some of the technology, but were almost shoved aside when Google came into the picture.
There are some great number of stories in this book; one among them that always puzzled me was as to why Altavista, at one time the number one leader in the search space lost out so easily in the search game (the suits running the company failed to take advantage of the early lead). If you ever wondered as to how this company called Google came into being and what was the growth like, then this book has the answers. For people who were confused as to the difference between Google and Yahoo, you get a lot many answers in this book.
However, the book does not always go ga-ga over the Google Story, with a fair amount of criticism of the company also included. Thus you get to hear about the internal style of functioning of the company (with the 2 founders almost being portrayed as dictators), about how different the development/organizational model of Google is when compared with other software companies. For me, one important section was about the Google policy of 'Do no evil'. Even though the book has covered the ethical dilemmas of Google when matching this policy with the force exerted by the Chinese Government, it does not cover the disappointment that a lot of people felt when Google compromised and agreed to be a part of the China censorship effort (through its google.cn site).
Overall, this book will take you through the development of search in some detail, including the evolution of Google and to some extent of Yahoo, and some trends in future search technology development. Most of all, this book should enthuse you about what the single-minded dedication (and luck) of a group of inventors can take them. Read the book for some inspiration.

The Goal 2: It's not luck

For those who have read the book before this one 'The Goal', the book must have seemed like a breath of fresh air. Imagine a business novel written in the shape of a gripping novel, and seeking to present the objective (business concepts) in a way that does not put you to sleep - well, that was the way in which 'The Goal' was written. And here is the next book in the series. 'The Goal II - It's not chance' takes the story forward from the first book.
Is 'The Goal' required reading for 'The Goal II - It's not chance' ? No, you can read the second book without having to read the first book, but the 'The Goal' is good enough that you can read it on its own.



The book is written in the same style as the first book. The story is gripping, giving touches of both personal and business examples, and keeps you reading. If compared with 'The Goal', the book seems a bit less gripping, but just a bit less. Overall, it is worth reading. I found that you learn most from the book if you re-read it again within a few days of reading it first, since you are able to grasp the power of the concepts more thoroughly.
So while 'The Goal' was all about using the Theory of Constraints and associated bottlenecks to the manufacturing arena and how best to build predictability and flexibility to production, 'The Goal 2: It's not luck' takes you to a higher level. The people involved are roughly the same. It's still Alex Rogo and his team (and his family) who are now all promoted out of the plant that they helped save and have important positions in the conglomerate.
The conglomerate is a diversified one, having a printing business, women's cosmetics, services and parts, auto products, etc. In this time and age, any expert would recommend that such a diversified group should consolidate; it gets more difficult to hold onto these when these diverse concerns are making losses and dragging down the conglomerate. It is quite logical that board members are pushing to sell them off, it is difficult for Alex Rogo to oppose these measures; the only thing he can do is to get them to be profitable so that either they earn enough to add value or they can be sold as a good profit making entity.
That is the quest of this book; how to use the Thinking Processes to turn around diverse companies - in fact, the idea is to show the strength of the Thinking Processes, which are used to examine conflicting logical arguments, incorporate customer needs and business environment and develop a workable solution that can help take a business from loss to profit, and also be used to solve personal problems ! It seems fairly logical, but there is a weakness as well - you need to get all the concepts and environmental points correct in order to do a good analysis.

Tom Clancy: Executive Orders

If you have read some of my earlier reviews, you would not be faulted for assuming that I am a fan of Tom Clancy's writings. I have read most of his books, and found fault with few of them; in each of them I have gained a bit of knowledge about matters about which I did not know previously, whether it be the working of the US Government and its intelligence agencies (although this knowledge would be outdated with the sweeping changes introduced after the September 11 attacks in the entire intelligence hierarchy and the demotion of the CIA), the interaction between the various arms of the US Government (executive, legislature and judiciary), knowledge of financial institutions and the stock market, and the precise attention to detail that is paid to military matters. Some are controversial, including the one that starts this book.
The power of Tom Clancy as an author is in terms of how his various plots drag you into the novel (feel free to disagree if it does not have the same effect on you), and typically there are a number of sub-plots that seem to merge as you move on, and culminate towards a gripping conclusion. Of course, the conclusion is unlike a detective novel (where you might find out whodunit on the last page), you would know where all this is going to land up when reading the last 50 pages (except for the prequel to this novel, the 'Debt of Honor').



Surprisingly for Clancy, this novel has a couple of weaknesses in the sense that one of the sub-plots involving the anarchists never made much of an impact, and the ending of that plot was also a bit weak, and he could have removed it without any impact on the book (unless he made it stronger). Additionally, the concept of a sleeper agent exists, but for one to rise undetected through the ranks and reach so close to the President was a bit hard to believe, you would believe after all that such a person would sooner or later get swayed by the influence of the culture he lives in. Also, some of his characters are painted in a fairly negative way, for example the Iranian leader, even while explaining his motives, does not have anything positive for you to understand him as a complex character.
From this point on, there will be some detailing of the story, so if you want to avoid spoilers, you can jump away at any point and go ahead and read the novel.
Executive Orders was released in 1996 and starts where Debt of Honor concludes as a renegade Japanese pilot takes his jumbo jet and pilots it into the Capitol (The US Congress). (Imagine the shock when the September 11 attacks took place involving large jets colliding with buildings, including the fourth jet, brought down by passengers that was supposed to be attacking the US Congress). When you read the book including the details, you can begin to understand as why the World Trade Towers actually went down, and feel for the people who were affected.
Jack Ryan was supposed to be brought into the building for confirmation as the Vice-President, and since the President is now dead, he is defaulted as the new President, at a time when most of the Washington based central administration is dead (Cabinet Secretaries, Senators, Congressmen, Supreme Court Justices, all). As the book says, the US Government was gutted.
Tom Clancy has the concept of honor woven into his books, and Jack Ryan is a honorable man (different from most politicians) and will do what it takes to build the administration of the country up again, assisted by some able advisors such as the experienced Chief of Staff, a straight FBI agent made as the Acting Director, and his friends in the CIA as the CIA head (and he is accused of building up the Government in his image, maybe rightfully so, since putting your friends in prominent positions is a form of nepotism). He also has an unusual challenge where the resigned Vice-President, Ed Kealty claims a honor also by claiming that he did not officially resign and hence he should be the President by simple law. Unfortunately, Jack Ryan controls the Government and hence has a major lead.
Given that the heads of most Governments have not read the previous books :-) and do not know the inner strength of Jack Ryan, they under-estimate his capabilities. For example, when he does not display a seemingly political speech at the memorial of the victims, he is seen as not presidential and his overseas enemies feel that the time is right to defeat the United States.
The major incidents of the book get started when a person seemingly Saddam Hussein (although not by name), is assassinated by a deep undercover ready-to-die Iranian agent under the control of the Iranian cleric (Ayatollah Mahmoud Haji Daryaei), Iraq is ripe for the picking (especially since Saddam never let a second line of command build up). Soon, in a carefully choreographed yet quick turn of events, all resistance inside Iraq melts and it joins Iraq (a bit difficult to believe since the rulers were all Sunni, very resistant to Shia Iran and would not have so easily joined up, but anyhow, let us continue). Now, if only they can get Saudi Arabia, then the United Islamic Republic would be in control of the holy places and the largest oil exporter in the world.
What stops them from doing do? Primarily the US, since it would not like the Saudi regime to be replaced by an clerical Iranian controller. So how to stop the the US from doing so; get some countries such as India and China to act as distractors, and then incapacitate the US by crippling with with a biological attack (an Ebola based warfare, lethal and described in great detail) as well as an assassination attack on the President directly.
The novel has some great parts on how Ryan acts as per his instincts, which are decidedly not leaning towards the Democratic Party (his spiel for strict constructionists for the Supreme Court sounds very much like Samuel Aito, John Roberts, Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia - people whom I consider can set the rights of individuals back by a large degree), and his debate on whether to limit cross-state travel (though sounding correct) can be very ominous indeed, given that the current debates are all about using the need for fighting terrorism to set more control.
In the end, his struggle to beat Ebola is successful, and he is also able to set forth a principle about making leaders responsible by getting the Iranian leader killed; at the same time that a small section of his army, using its high-tech wizardry is able to beat the UIR army in a very believable way.
Why is the novel called Executive Orders ? Because the President governs within the ambit of laws made by Congress, and in the absence of Congress, he can govern with the issue of Executive Orders.

Isaac Asimov: Foundation

In the 1940's, a writer starting writing science fiction stories about a empire far in the future (and when we mean far, we mean so far in the future that no one remembers Earth). This is a mega-empire, controlling vast sections of the galaxy in a peaceful existence, enforced by the power of massive spaceships and the power of atomics (weapons as well as other equipment controlled by the power of atomic energy). And then imagine this entire galaxy wide power to be in a slow decline such that no one realizes that it is decaying but no one knows that, except for one man who has invented a new science/maths that is so complicated that very few people can figure it out. (This maths works at predicting the behaviour of people in a crowd, with the bigger the crowd, the more easy the prediction is to make. Conversely, it is impossible to predict what one person can do.) Using this maths, the person has calculated that this mega-empire that has held the peace for thousands of years will die out, and there will come a horrible period of anarchy, war and horror that will last for tens of thousands of years unless some steps are taken to reduce this time period. Asimov took a series of short stories he had written using this theory as a base, and made an epic novel out of this, itself the precursor to a series that won the Hugo Award in 1965. Asimov may have died in 1987, but his name lives on in this mighty series that he wrote.



I have always been a fan of Asimov, so I might be a bit biased, but I have always considered this book to be an incredible book. Part of the beauty of this book is that it does not go into details of what the future will look like in terms of development of machines or other such science, but concentrates on what the society of that time will be like. In many ways, it seems like a continuation of things you can see even now (or could see if you studied the rise and falls of the great empires); using the decay caused by flattery, by too much bureaucracy, and by the presence of weak people in the position of power. You can read about how politics plays a part in everything, and how the power of mass appeal can be used to seduce the masses. In fact, if you look further, you can even relate the use of organized religion (and the terms takes on a new meaning in the book) to be used to control an entire planet (seems similar to what you can see in terms of the influence of religion in large sections of the world ?)
The book starts from the perspective of Hari Seldon, a newly arrived mathematician to the city of Trantor, the heavily settled capital of the Galactic Empire that has been in operation now for 12,000 years. Trantor is a world that has been totally built over now (although modern climatologists will argue that such a doing would totally destroy the climate of the world) and is dependent on a large amount of resources from all over for its survival. He is already getting famous as the inventor of psychohistory, which can be used to predict the future (or more accurately, as he keeps on describing, is a tool that be used to calculate the future of large masses of people). The Emperor calls him, and is not satisfied, and ultimately he is hauled up in front of the court for predicting sedition.
He manages to turn the battle by defining some of the timeframes, and proposes that he can save the future by getting an Encyclopedia Galactica built using his team, and they are moved to a small mineral-less planet called Terminus on the edge of the galaxy. Their true mission is to eventually establish a Foundation that is the core of Seldon's plan to bring order within a 1000 years. And so starts the story of the Foundation, growing out of this small set.
The story continues 50 years later with the planet being governed by the body writing the encyclopedia, not caring about what else happens. They get a visit from the neighboring provinces, one of the 4 neighboring provinces that have rebelled against the empire and become independent, but are low in technology, with no knowledge of atomics. Terminus is asked to pay tribute for protection (extortion on a planetary scale), and in lieu of minerals, to accept parceling out sections of the planet to the province and accept it as a feudal lord. A visitor from the empire is of no help. It is at the this time that Salvor Hardin, the largely powerless Mayor of Terminus shows his true skills, convincing the other provinces that the move by Anacreon is against them and winning this round. And to cement his triumph, Hari Seldon emerges in a 50 year hologram from the Time Vault and describes that the events were exactly as he expected, and that the concept of an Encyclopedia Galactica was a sham, with the true purpose being to setup the Foundation as the nucleus of a new power center.
3 decades later, the Foundation, using its vastly superior technology and knowledge of atomics, has taken over pseudo-control over the neighboring provinces through a system of science and technology transfer under the guise of a religion called Scienticism. People all over have accepted it as a valid religion, controlled by priests who are educated on Terminus and are capable of controlling the mobs on the various planets. But Terminus by itself does not have any military power of its own, instead depending on the religion to keep things under control. One person, Wiennis, the regent of Anacreon has seen through this and wants to defeat the Foundation militarily and get overall control. Towards this end, he even captures a derelict old massive Empire battleship and gets the Foundation to repair it, something that Salvator Hardin agrees to do. Hardin is under tremendous pressure from a section of his political opposition that does not like this appeasement, and they are enraged at this generosity of the Foundation. However, when Wiennis orders the attack, he finds out the true power of the religion that he endorsed. His ship, and every temple of the land is put under interdict, with the priests telling the population that Wiennis is committing blasphemy and his rebellion is defeated. However, at the end, in another emergence of Hari Seldon in the time vault, he comments about how the religion is enough for defense, but not for expansion.
These were the 2 most interesting chapters of the book, and the remaining chapters of the book talk about how the Foundation now spreads through the power of its technology and through the Merchant Princers, traders who spread the influence of the Foundation through the neighborhood, beating attempts to control this influence from spreading through means of hook or crook. The last section has an interesting story about how, when a society is hooked onto convenient and useful machines in every section of life, a war can be controlled by just denial of such machines to households in the planet.
For true science fiction adherents, this is such a book worth keeping that even buying a hardbound edition will be useful.

Hardcover

Paperback

Book Review: Barbarians at the Gate

This is not a new book. I remember reading it more than a decade back, and then suddenly I caught sight of the book in my office library, and it brought back memories. The book is an incredible piece of writing, and one can expect a great deal of detail, since the authors, Bryan Burrough and John Helyar are investigative reporters and had covered the takeover deal for RJR Nabisco in great detail. The book may seem a bit dated, since it was written in 1990 covering the Leveraged Buyout (LBO) of RJR Nabisco in 2 frantic months of 1988. However, I would argue that anybody who reads this book and is even moderately interested in the working of businesses, takeovers, and most importantly, the CEO's and boards of companies should read this book.



The book is gripping reading, especially because it desists from going into details into arcane financial details and boring readers (except the ones who get their kicks from too many financial details). Let me re-phrase; the book does not desist from providing financial details and certainly does not try to dumb down how things work, but the way in which the story line is crafted would make this seem like a thriller based on company mergers (and if you did not know this actually happened, you could believe this to be a work of fiction).
For a lot of readers, the stock-market boom of the internet era and the crash-and-doom of 2001 was a major thing, and they would have expected a period in history to be similar. But the fact remains that the 1980's was also an extra-ordinary period of financial turmoil with 2 great (and very controversial) terms coming to life; the junk-bonds most popularized by the junk-bond king Michael Miliken of the Drexel Burnham Lambert, and the Leveraged Buyout kind of takeover made most popular by a small firm called KKR (Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts).
These came together in a burst of what seemed like a great financial innovation - the Leveraged Buyout. What does LBO mean ? Loosely put, a LBO is used when the executives of a company believe that the company is being under-valued, or they want to make a pitch for the company when it is under hostile attack; and they go in for buying the company outright. They need to raise a bid high enough that shareholders (including the institutions - typically pension funds and others) sell of their shares. However, this requires a massive amount of money, and the net result of this is high debt levels (indeed, in many cases, crippling debt levels where interest payments demand massive cost-cutting). Some companies manage, becoming lean and mean, and in other cases, the whole stack of cards crumble.
Barbarians At The Gate is the story of the LBO launched by the CEO of RJR Nabisco, Ross Johnson, and his battle with the takeover firm, KKR (Kohlberg Kravis and Roberts - the important partners being Henry Kravis and George Roberts). Now KKR was a firm with extremely efficient partners, and the battle between Ross JOhnson and KKR was an epic battle with many rounds of discussion, debate and escalating payoff's, all being weighed by the board of RJR Nabisco, former friends and partners of Ross JOhnson, and now being the principle representatives of shareholders.
The interesting part of the book is a telling of the history of the companies, main people involved, their ambitions, their motivations and how they plan and scheme to get ahead. The book has what is called the 'people' perspective, and you will get a fair idea of what the personal ambitions of a person as ambitious (and ruthless) as Ross Johnson will cost many of the other people involved. However, it also details the variability involved in decision-making, particularly when Ross Johnson did not anticipate anybody else getting involved.
Also, you get to see something evolving in this book that continues to this day, namely the notion of how executive perks have kept on increasing. It is a fair understanding that many shareholders do not know the full level of executive perks, otherwise you would see far more resentment especially when the company is barely plodding along with not much dividend or increase in stock value.
This book is a great read, and I was absolutely hooked after reading it.

Tom Clancy: Debt of Honor

Somehow, I have always liked reading books by Tom Clancy. His books always contain a good deal of learning about things that you read superficially about in news articles, but when you read about them as he explains them, they make much more sense. So, for example, in this book by Tom Clancy that was published in 1995, you learn about trade, about the politics that drive bills in Congress, a lot about the stock market and the working of major financial institutions, and about the military (a pet subject of Tom Clancy), as well as about the effects of a fully laden plane flying into a building.
Now, in a book about a major trade war between the US and Japan, you would expect to see a lot of Japan bashing, but it is not so obvious actually. There are many people in Japan who are depicted as weak or with ill-will towards the US, but then you have major American politicians who are also shown as weak, or philandering. So, there is some Japan bashing, but very minimal, and I am pretty sure that from what I read earlier, the depiction of the influence of businessmen in Japanese political life is accurate to a large degree.
What appeals most about Tom Clancy is how he keeps several stories running at the same time, switching between the stories from time to time and still making sense. One problem of course is doing this, giving character to the novel makes it cumbersome and a bit big to read in terms of pages (this book itself being 900 pages), but I don't mind it too much. He also plays a lot on honor, considering that too be a core attitude in a person, and he has a set of core characters who are honorable, such as the lead man, Jack Ryan, the CIA operatives, the Russian head of the spy agency, his FBI friend, and so on.
The book starts 2 years from where the previous book (The Sum of All Fears) left off, with Jack Ryan getting called back into public life and getting appointed as the National Security Advisor. He has a couple of initial successes, and then the story takes a twist on its own. A car accident and a botched gas tank leads to politics that leads to a trade war as a politician leverages on the public outrage; this action leads a disaster in terms of the Japanese trade and economy getting badly affected. The Prime Minister has to resign and a hardliner takes over, being guided by a businessman who has visions of Japan regaining old glory. The businessman has also influenced an attempt by the Japanese to develop nuclear weapons, with old Russian missile bodies being used for the delivery mechanism (ostensibly for space launchers).
The trade war escalates, with the Japanese businessman coordinating a melt-down of the storage of American stocks records, leading to a disaster as with no records, there are no established trades. In the midst of this, a planned naval exercise with Japan turns ugly for the Americans when the Japanese sink 2 submarines with all the personnel on board, and America is now at war, with a nation that also has nuclear capability.
In addition, the Americans do not have current nuclear missile capability, they do not have naval assets to take back some islands that the Japanese have taken over. In the midst of all, there is a sexual criminal scandal against the Vice-President. Jack Ryan has to deploy all his skills to win back the initiative for the Americans, and he eventually does that. The description of the military battles as well as the stock mechanisms are very detailed. The only weak point was the sudden termination of the scandal involving the Vice-President.
At the end of the book, with the Vice-President having resigned, Jack Ryan is called to be the Vice-President, at which a time a disgruntled Japanese pilot puts his fully fuel loaded plane into the Capitol Hill, killing most of Congress, the President and the Supreme Court. Jack Ryan will have to be President now.

The Goal: A Great Book

Have you ever read a business book that was so interesting that it made you turn pages to see what is going to happen next ? I have read a number of strategy books, books on what excellent companies do, books on what enterprising leaders do, but I have never read a business book such as this one.
The Goal takes a somewhat familiar concept of a loss making unit being told that his unit can no longer be afforded by the parent company due to its losses and will have to be shut down, with the loss of its entire work-force and him personally as well, unless, the plant can be turned around and show profits. In addition, the time and pressures involved in the job is causing incredible pressures in the marital life of the Plant Manager Alex Rogo (the book is written from his perspective), with the marriage showing strong signs of breaking down.
Now Alex knows that he has to increase profits, for which he has to show better sales and reduce inventories, but neither nor his managers are able to figure out how to. In addition, with the way that the plant is working, they are not able to execute orders on a proper ordered schedule, and when a major customers calls, they have to execute a rush order that in turn causes costs to go up. At this time, Alex remembers an old college mate of his who is a college professor in the area of operational effectiveness, but he is a very busy person and his mechanisms are also radical, going against most cost accounting. In the midst of all this, his wife goes back to her parent's house.
And then comes the change around. Based on the long-distance and 1 visit by the professor, Jonah, which causes Alex to push for the concept of using the Theory of Constraints to figure out what the changes are needed in the plant. He needs to increase throughput, reduce inventory and reduce operational expense, seemingly very logical steps, but extremely difficult to bring out.
And the real hard conceptual part starts, where Alex and his team figure out what constraints and bottlenecks actually mean, and have to try and overturn traditional accounting. They need to overcome the bottleneck, since the bottleneck decides the speed of throughput through a system. If work items are lined up at a bottleneck and are piling up, then the throughput of the system is slowed down. In addition, a good learning from the book was that a bottleneck can be a dynamic system, in the sense that any machine can be a bottleneck depending on how work items are getting piled up. This could even involved getting an older machine if it helps break up the bottleneck.
Once they are able to resolve this system, they find that the system starts to move more smoothly, order scheduling and predictability becomes more accurate and much shorter. The harder part is in convincing the management and cost accounting department about this new system, but even they are convinced by the new figures and sales starting to emerge.
At the same time, Alex Rogo is saving his marriage by starting again, giving time to his wife and starting the romance again. The book finally ends by everything getting solved, and leaves a long thought in the head about how to use this great system to help resolve things.